Is the winter in the UK as expected?

A new provisional maximum temperature record for the UK&nbsp for January was set on Sunday ( 28/01/24 ), and there has been a lot of coverage of the weather in recent weeks with what has so far felt like an unusually stormy autumn and winter. This was followed by an spell of extremely cold weather with, and many people experienced impacts from snow and ice. In addition, &nbsp,

We must consider the weather outside of the UK in order to comprehend what has been happening over the past few months and what we might anticipate for the upcoming months. Large-scale global weather and climate systems, also referred to as climate drivers, can have a significant impact on the UK at this time of year due to the interconnectedness of the world’s weather. So, who are these drivers and what are they currently doing? &nbsp,

nbsp’s climate drivers,

The Pacific Ocean’s natural warming, known as El Nio, warms the atmosphere and produces warmer, wetter air, which can cause extreme weather all over the world and have effects like the ongoing drought in the Amazon. In addition, &nbsp,

As is well known, the UK has experienced a wet and stormy December followed by an even colder January. This kind of weather is typical for an El Nio winter, as we would anticipate. Despite the fact that we are currently experiencing a milder interlude with westerly and southerly winds, the long-term outlook still calls for the return to colder weather. &nbsp,

The Met Office declared earlier this month that 2023 was the warmest year on record ( data going back to 1850 ) and the tenth year in a row to have risen by at least 1.0 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period ( 1850–1900-). The Met Office’s Principal Fellow and Head of Monthly for Decadal Prediction, Professor Adam Scaife, stated that El Nio is to blame for the above-average temperatures, which are largely caused by climate change. Eastern Pacific winds that weaken during an El Nio event keep warm waters closer to the surface, increasing heat release into the atmosphere and raising the temperature of the planet. In addition, &nbsp,

El Nio is also consistent with the ongoing Amazon drought and wet conditions in some of Northern Europe in December. ” &nbsp,

Professor Adam Scaife added:” The phenomenon may well lead to unprecedented global temperatures this year, with 2024 being the hottest year on record globally, potentially pushing the world temporarily past the key 1.5C warming milestone. El Nio has likely peaked in the tropical regions, but its effects are still felt throughout the globe. ” &nbsp,

Our weather patterns are not solely influenced by El Nio. The Quasi- Biennial Oscillation ( QBO ) is another factor affecting the UK this winter. The winds that blow strongly above the equator frequently change in this way. The QBO is currently in an easterly phase, which raises the possibility of cold winds coming from continental Europe and the Arctic. The Stratospheric Polar Vortex has been weaker than usual thus far this winter, but it has now returned to a strength that is roughly average, and its influence is likely to be constrained in the near future. In early February, a strong Madden-Julian Oscillation favors westerly winds over the UK, but in mid- and late-February, the winds are less favorable. &nbsp,

All of these effects are occurring as the UK winters warm up, which is consistent with larger trends in global warming. &nbsp,

Our long-range forecast systems predict that February will begin mild, with the likelihood of cold weather increasing as we move through the month and into March, taking into account the “global drivers.” This indicates that some effects of cold weather, such as snow and ice, may still be visible. The possibility of milder conditions is still present despite the increased likelihood of cold. In addition, &nbsp,

Despite any speculation you may have read elsewhere, science simply does not permit precise information on the amount of rain or snowfall over the upcoming months or the precise timing of severe weather. Long-term forecasts, however, can give useful details about the average likelihood of potential conditions across the UK. &nbsp,

The Met Office is one of the top institutions in the field of science for longer-range and seasonal outlooks, which is at the forefront of meteorology. Even with “perfect” prediction systems, these predictions will always be concerned with the likelihood of various potential weather conditions and the levels of risk of impacts they might bring due to the fundamentally chaotic nature of the atmosphere. The fundamentally chaotic nature of the atmosphere means that even with “perfect” prediction systems, these predictions must always take into account the likelihood of various weather conditions and the potential impacts they may have. &nbsp,

On our website, you can view the long range forecast and the daily weather forecast. You can also follow us on Facebook and Twitter, as well as on our mobile app, which is accessible through the Google Play store for Android and the iPhone from the App store. Each month, we update our three-month outlooks. Visit the weather warning page to keep track of current weather alerts. &nbsp,

Source: metoffice.gov.uk